Looking back at headlines from late March to early April 2025, it's easy to see why so many people were concerned about the economy and stock market:
“Wall Street Braces for More Pain as Trump’s Tariffs Threaten Corporate Earnings”
The New York Times, March 28, 2025
“Chicago Fed President Warns Trump Tariffs Could Spike Inflation, Cripple Growth”
Chicago Tribune, April 2, 2025
“Tariffs Send Wall Street Tumbling to Worst Day Since Pandemic”
The New York Times, April 3, 2025
“Stocks Suffer Record Two-Day Wipeout”
The Wall Street Journal, April 4, 2025
From February 19 through April 4, the S&P 500 fell 17.3%. With all the fear circulating in the media, we knew clients were worried—so on Friday, April 4, we sent the following message:
Dear Client,
I wish I could pinpoint when the uncertainty in today’s world will clear up, but no one can—not me, not anyone—without a lucky guess we’d only confirm later.
Here’s what I do know: Some will sell their stocks now and feel relieved—temporarily. But as markets recover, that relief often turns to worry: “When do I get back in?” If they wait too long, they miss out. I’ve seen this cycle trap investors time and again, costing them dearly as markets soar while they sit on the sidelines.
You will undoubtably hear many doom and gloom stories over the coming weeks or months. Ignore them. You may have friends or coworkers who have gotten out of the market and are feeling rather clever or just relieved. Politely ignore them. You may be criticized for riding out the storm. Ignore it.
If you’re still working, these low prices are a golden chance to buy stocks on sale—stay the course. If you’re retired and drawing income, your diversified portfolio, with bonds as a buffer, is built for this—stay the course.
A few weeks ago, I wrote a blog about the current conditions, if you missed it, here is a link:
Riding Out the Market: Lessons From 40 Years of Observation | Grand Capital Advisors
One final thought: We’ve weathered tough markets before—1987, 2008, 2020 — and they always recover. Before long, we’re on to the next chapter. Those who tune out the noise come out ahead. Reach out if you’d like to chat— we’re here for you.
Warm regards,
Ken
Of course, at the time, I had no idea how long the market turmoil would last. As it turned out, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday—and as of today, it’s up more than 21% since then.
Fortunately, our clients stayed invested. Unfortunately, many investors outside our little world did not. Too many sold out in search of short-term relief to avoid stock market “pain”.
This isn’t a “We told you so” or a victory lap. It’s simply a reminder of how hard it is to time the market based on the news of the day. Peter Lynch of Fidelity’s Magellan Fund said it best:
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”
In the end, moments like these are a reminder of what matters most in investing: discipline, patience, and a plan. We can’t predict the headlines, but we can control how we respond to them. That’s where real progress is made. If you ever feel uncertain about what’s next, reach out—we’re always here to talk things through.
All my best,
Ken
